26.06.2026 21:00Toronto Stadium · Toronto
SenegalvsIrak
KYRON Hauptempfehlung
1X · 1
Modell-Scoreline: SEN 2:1 · Hauptempfehlung: Vorsichtig: 1X
9,4 %Scoreline-Wahrscheinlichkeit
2:0Alternativ-Ergebnis
1:1Rein wahrscheinlichste Scoreline
55Reliability
volatileExact-Score-Basis
xG-Vorteil Heimteam · Stärkste Signale: FIFA Ranking pro Heim, KYRON Elo pro Heim · Hauptempfehlung bleibt 1X2/Safe, Exact Score ist Nebeninfo · Safe: 1X · Confidence 56/100 · Risiko medium
47 %Sieg SEN
25 %Remis
28 %Sieg IRQ
1,61xG Heim
1,20xG Auswärts
11X2 Haupttipp
56Confidence
55Reliability
representative_outcome_scorelineTipp-Strategie
Exact Score ist volatil; als Nebeninfo lesen, nicht als sichere Ergebnisansage.
Plausible Modell-Scorelines
Der exakte Score ist keine sichere Vorhersage. KYRON nutzt ihn nur als Modell-Scoreline; Hauptempfehlung bleiben 1X2, Safe-Tipp und Risiko.
1:1
11,6 %
11,6 %
1:0
9,7 %
9,7 %
2:1
9,4 %
9,4 %
2:0
7,8 %
7,8 %
0:1
7,2 %
7,2 %
1:2
7,0 %
7,0 %
0:0
6,0 %
6,0 %
2:2
5,6 %
5,6 %
Over 2.5 53 % BTTS 56 % Hauptempfehlung: 1X Risiko medium
V9 Ensemble- und Daten-Signale
FIFA Ranking
Offizielle FIFA-Punkte als Grundstärke: Differenz 237,79 · FIFA-Rang 15 vs 57
Offizielle FIFA-Punkte als Grundstärke: Differenz 237,79 · FIFA-Rang 15 vs 57
Gewicht 30,2 % Qualität 95 %
KYRON Elo
KYRON-Elo/Turnier-Elo inklusive Gastgeberbonus: Differenz 253,7
KYRON-Elo/Turnier-Elo inklusive Gastgeberbonus: Differenz 253,7
Gewicht 22,9 % Qualität 72 %
Form
Kurzfristige Form aus Formwert/FIFA-Punktedelta: Differenz -0,99
Kurzfristige Form aus Formwert/FIFA-Punktedelta: Differenz -0,99
Gewicht 17,3 % Qualität 68 %
Attack/Defense
Offensiv-/Defensiv-Matchup: Heimspur 0,035, Auswärtsspur -0,036
Offensiv-/Defensiv-Matchup: Heimspur 0,035, Auswärtsspur -0,036
Gewicht 29,7 % Qualität 78 %
Market Check
Kein Markt-/Quoten-Snapshot vorhanden; Modellanteil wird für dieses Spiel nicht gewichtet.
Kein Markt-/Quoten-Snapshot vorhanden; Modellanteil wird für dieses Spiel nicht gewichtet.
Gewicht 0,0 % Qualität 0 %
Modell-Snapshot anzeigen
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Stadium"},"home":{"id":34,"name":"Senegal","short_name":"SEN","elo":"1700.00","kyron_elo":null,"attack_rating":"70.00","defense_rating":"70.00","form_rating":"70.00","rolling_form":null,"fifa_rank":15,"fifa_points":"1684.07","fifa_points_delta":"-4.92","source":"fifa_ranking_2026_06_11","source_date":"2026-06-11","data_quality":"1.00","is_host":0},"away":{"id":35,"name":"Irak","short_name":"IRQ","elo":"1446.28","kyron_elo":null,"attack_rating":"66.38","defense_rating":"66.52","form_rating":"69.27","rolling_form":null,"fifa_rank":57,"fifa_points":"1446.28","fifa_points_delta":null,"source":"fifa_ranking_2026_06_11","source_date":"2026-06-11","data_quality":"0.95","is_host":0},"adjustment":null,"settings":{"base_goals":1.350000000000000088817841970012523233890533447265625,"host_factor":0.11999999999999999555910790149937383830547332763671875,"home_advantage":0.08000000000000000166533453693773481063544750213623046875,"weights":{"fifa_ranking":0.301587301587301570560128993747639469802379608154296875,"kyron_elo":0.2285714285714285642914234131239936687052249908447265625,"form":0.1726984126984127121406942251269356347620487213134765625,"attack_defense":0.2971428571428571530077533680014312267303466796875,"market":0}},"v9_mismatch_goal_bonus":{"weighted_edge":0.299466233021309591322278720326721668243408203125,"bonus":0.086015687775342908327758095765602774918079376220703125},"ensemble":[{"key":"fifa_ranking","label":"FIFA Ranking","weight":0.25,"home_edge":0.51253850079891793978248415442067198455333709716796875,"home_xg_adjustment":0.17426309027163211506916695725522004067897796630859375,"away_xg_adjustment":-0.17426309027163211506916695725522004067897796630859375,"confidence":0.89557999999999993168131595666636712849140167236328125,"data_quality":0.9499999999999999555910790149937383830547332763671875,"explanation":"Offizielle FIFA-Punkte als Grundstärke: Differenz 237,79 · FIFA-Rang 15 vs 57","debug":{"home_points":1684.069999999999936335370875895023345947265625,"away_points":1446.279999999999972715158946812152862548828125,"points_diff":237.7899999999999636202119290828704833984375},"effective_weight":0.301587301587301570560128993747639469802379608154296875},{"key":"kyron_elo","label":"KYRON Elo","weight":0.25,"home_edge":0.5610059936125140200857686068047769367694854736328125,"home_xg_adjustment":0.1683017980837542004746154589156503789126873016357421875,"away_xg_adjustment":-0.1683017980837542004746154589156503789126873016357421875,"confidence":0.887923076923077037037046466139145195484161376953125,"data_quality":0.7199999999999999733546474089962430298328399658203125,"explanation":"KYRON-Elo/Turnier-Elo inklusive Gastgeberbonus: Differenz 253,7","debug":{"home_elo":1700,"away_elo":1446.279999999999972715158946812152862548828125,"home_host_bonus":0,"away_host_bonus":0,"elo_diff":253.720000000000027284841053187847137451171875},"effective_weight":0.2285714285714285642914234131239936687052249908447265625},{"key":"form","label":"Form","weight":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"home_edge":-0.0291764705882351753352121903617444331757724285125732421875,"home_xg_adjustment":-0.00641882352941173899008031611401747795753180980682373046875,"away_xg_adjustment":0.00641882352941173899008031611401747795753180980682373046875,"confidence":0.378036363636363559326269978555501438677310943603515625,"data_quality":0.68000000000000004884981308350688777863979339599609375,"explanation":"Kurzfristige Form aus Formwert/FIFA-Punktedelta: Differenz -0,99","debug":{"home_form":70,"away_form":69.2699999999999960209606797434389591217041015625,"home_delta":-4.9199999999999999289457264239899814128875732421875,"away_delta":0,"form_diff":-0.991999999999995996091683991835452616214752197265625},"effective_weight":0.1726984126984127121406942251269356347620487213134765625},{"key":"attack_defense","label":"Attack/Defense","weight":0.299999999999999988897769753748434595763683319091796875,"home_edge":0.07302857142857151206971622059427318163216114044189453125,"home_xg_adjustment":0.0250560000000000261677346458100146264769136905670166015625,"away_xg_adjustment":-0.026064000000000031587177318215253762900829315185546875,"confidence":0.4368000000000000770938868299708701670169830322265625,"data_quality":0.7800000000000000266453525910037569701671600341796875,"explanation":"Offensiv-/Defensiv-Matchup: Heimspur 0,035, Auswärtsspur -0,036","debug":{"home_attack":70,"away_attack":66.3799999999999954525264911353588104248046875,"home_defense":70,"away_defense":66.5199999999999960209606797434389591217041015625,"home_lane":0.03480000000000003923528169025303213857114315032958984375,"away_lane":-0.036200000000000044642067820177544490434229373931884765625},"effective_weight":0.2971428571428571530077533680014312267303466796875},{"key":"market","label":"Market Check","weight":0,"home_edge":0,"home_xg_adjustment":0,"away_xg_adjustment":0,"confidence":0,"data_quality":0,"explanation":"Kein Markt-/Quoten-Snapshot vorhanden; Modellanteil wird für dieses Spiel nicht gewichtet.","debug":[],"effective_weight":0}],"calibration":{"score":56,"risk":"medium","warnings":[],"model_agreement":0.53015873015873016260712802250054664909839630126953125,"separation":0.1862314167622252103484470353578217327594757080078125},"direct_tip":{"score":"2:1","label":"Modell-Scoreline: SEN 2:1 · Hauptempfehlung: Vorsichtig: 1X","probability":0.09373105084719368651491322452784515917301177978515625,"strategy":"representative_outcome_scoreline","exact_score_reliability":"volatile","top_5":[{"home_goals":1,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.1161923801820858026534466489465557970106601715087890625},{"home_goals":1,"away_goals":0,"probability":0.0969069684613726722854920581085025332868099212646484375},{"home_goals":2,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.09373105084719368651491322452784515917301177978515625},{"home_goals":2,"away_goals":0,"probability":0.0781737319957297727146539045861572958528995513916015625},{"home_goals":0,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.0720181257456934675875714901849278248846530914306640625}],"reason":"xG-Vorteil Heimteam · Stärkste Signale: FIFA Ranking pro Heim, KYRON Elo pro Heim · Hauptempfehlung bleibt 1X2/Safe, Exact Score ist Nebeninfo · Safe: 1X · Confidence 56/100 · Risiko medium"},"rating_policy":"V9 Trust & Integrity: Hauptempfehlung ist 1X2/Safe; exakte Scoreline ist nur eine repräsentative Modell-Scoreline mit klarer Unsicherheitskennzeichnung.","trust_mode":"honest","primary_recommendation":"Vorsichtig: 1X","scoreline_note":"Repräsentative Scoreline gewählt, weil mehrere Top-Ergebnisse dicht beieinander liegen. Reine Top-Scoreline wäre 1:1. Torprofil spricht nicht für reinen Minimal-Score. BTTS-Signal ist relevant.","display_policy":"Exact Score ist nur Modell-Scoreline/Nebeninfo. Hauptempfehlung ist 1X2 bzw. Safe-Tipp."}