14.06.2026 00:00New York New Jersey Stadium · New Jersey
BrazilvsMarokko
KYRON Hauptempfehlung
DNB 2 · 2
Modell-Scoreline: MAR 2:1 · Hauptempfehlung: Kein harter Tipp · nur DNB 2 als vorsichtige Variante
8,4 %Scoreline-Wahrscheinlichkeit
0:2Alternativ-Ergebnis
1:1Rein wahrscheinlichste Scoreline
34Reliability
volatileExact-Score-Basis
enger xG-Korridor · Stärkste Signale: Attack/Defense pro Auswärts, KYRON Elo pro Auswärts · Hauptempfehlung bleibt 1X2/Safe, Exact Score ist Nebeninfo · Safe: DNB 2 · Confidence 44/100 · Risiko high
37 %Sieg BRA
25 %Remis
38 %Sieg MAR
1,39xG Heim
1,40xG Auswärts
21X2 Haupttipp
44Confidence
34Reliability
representative_outcome_scorelineTipp-Strategie
Exact Score ist volatil; als Nebeninfo lesen, nicht als sichere Ergebnisansage.
Plausible Modell-Scorelines
Der exakte Score ist keine sichere Vorhersage. KYRON nutzt ihn nur als Modell-Scoreline; Hauptempfehlung bleiben 1X2, Safe-Tipp und Risiko.
1:1
12,0 %
12,0 %
0:1
8,6 %
8,6 %
1:0
8,6 %
8,6 %
1:2
8,4 %
8,4 %
2:1
8,3 %
8,3 %
0:0
6,2 %
6,2 %
0:2
6,0 %
6,0 %
2:0
5,9 %
5,9 %
Over 2.5 53 % BTTS 56 % Hauptempfehlung: DNB 2 Risiko high
V9 Ensemble- und Daten-Signale
FIFA Ranking
Offizielle FIFA-Punkte als Grundstärke: Differenz 10,76 · FIFA-Rang 6 vs 7
Offizielle FIFA-Punkte als Grundstärke: Differenz 10,76 · FIFA-Rang 6 vs 7
Gewicht 31,3 % Qualität 100 %
KYRON Elo
KYRON-Elo/Turnier-Elo inklusive Gastgeberbonus: Differenz -55,1
KYRON-Elo/Turnier-Elo inklusive Gastgeberbonus: Differenz -55,1
Gewicht 22,5 % Qualität 72 %
Form
Kurzfristige Form aus Formwert/FIFA-Punktedelta: Differenz -4,08
Kurzfristige Form aus Formwert/FIFA-Punktedelta: Differenz -4,08
Gewicht 17,0 % Qualität 68 %
Attack/Defense
Offensiv-/Defensiv-Matchup: Heimspur -0,155, Auswärtsspur 0,167
Offensiv-/Defensiv-Matchup: Heimspur -0,155, Auswärtsspur 0,167
Gewicht 29,3 % Qualität 78 %
Market Check
Kein Markt-/Quoten-Snapshot vorhanden; Modellanteil wird für dieses Spiel nicht gewichtet.
Kein Markt-/Quoten-Snapshot vorhanden; Modellanteil wird für dieses Spiel nicht gewichtet.
Gewicht 0,0 % Qualität 0 %
Modell-Snapshot anzeigen
{"match":{"id":6,"kickoff_at":"2026-06-14 00:00:00","venue":"New York New Jersey Stadium"},"home":{"id":9,"name":"Brazil","short_name":"BRA","elo":"1700.00","kyron_elo":null,"attack_rating":"70.00","defense_rating":"70.00","form_rating":"70.00","rolling_form":null,"fifa_rank":6,"fifa_points":"1765.86","fifa_points_delta":"4.70","source":"fifa_ranking_2026_06_11","source_date":"2026-06-11","data_quality":"1.00","is_host":0},"away":{"id":10,"name":"Marokko","short_name":"MAR","elo":"1755.10","kyron_elo":null,"attack_rating":"86.72","defense_rating":"85.49","form_rating":"75.99","rolling_form":null,"fifa_rank":7,"fifa_points":"1755.10","fifa_points_delta":"-0.77","source":"fifa_ranking_2026_06_11","source_date":"2026-06-11","data_quality":"1.00","is_host":0},"adjustment":{"id":1,"match_id":6,"home_adjustment":"0.000","away_adjustment":"0.000","note":"","created_at":"2026-06-13 16:19:55","updated_at":"2026-06-13 16:19:55"},"settings":{"base_goals":1.350000000000000088817841970012523233890533447265625,"host_factor":0.11999999999999999555910790149937383830547332763671875,"home_advantage":0.08000000000000000166533453693773481063544750213623046875,"weights":{"fifa_ranking":0.3125,"kyron_elo":0.22499999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"form":0.1700000000000000122124532708767219446599483489990234375,"attack_defense":0.292499999999999982236431605997495353221893310546875,"market":0}},"v9_mismatch_goal_bonus":{"weighted_edge":-0.140078574868110761197925739907077513635158538818359375,"bonus":0},"ensemble":[{"key":"fifa_ranking","label":"FIFA Ranking","weight":0.25,"home_edge":0.0256134441924631035825132840955120627768337726593017578125,"home_xg_adjustment":0.0087085710254374559813328460222692228853702545166015625,"away_xg_adjustment":-0.0087085710254374559813328460222692228853702545166015625,"confidence":0.441519999999999968043340459189494140446186065673828125,"data_quality":1,"explanation":"Offizielle FIFA-Punkte als Grundstärke: Differenz 10,76 · FIFA-Rang 6 vs 7","debug":{"home_points":1765.859999999999899955582804977893829345703125,"away_points":1755.09999999999990905052982270717620849609375,"points_diff":10.759999999999990905052982270717620849609375},"effective_weight":0.3125},{"key":"kyron_elo","label":"KYRON Elo","weight":0.25,"home_edge":-0.1368852909509769288920466578929335810244083404541015625,"home_xg_adjustment":-0.041065587285293074504277655023543047718703746795654296875,"away_xg_adjustment":0.041065587285293074504277655023543047718703746795654296875,"confidence":0.5059615384615383515409803294460289180278778076171875,"data_quality":0.7199999999999999733546474089962430298328399658203125,"explanation":"KYRON-Elo/Turnier-Elo inklusive Gastgeberbonus: Differenz -55,1","debug":{"home_elo":1700,"away_elo":1755.09999999999990905052982270717620849609375,"home_host_bonus":0,"away_host_bonus":0,"elo_diff":-55.09999999999990905052982270717620849609375},"effective_weight":0.22499999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375},{"key":"form","label":"Form","weight":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"home_edge":-0.11986764705882337056497277671951451338827610015869140625,"home_xg_adjustment":-0.0263708823529411433284064258941725711338222026824951171875,"away_xg_adjustment":0.0263708823529411433284064258941725711338222026824951171875,"confidence":0.434099999999999874855660664252354763448238372802734375,"data_quality":0.68000000000000004884981308350688777863979339599609375,"explanation":"Kurzfristige Form aus Formwert/FIFA-Punktedelta: Differenz -4,08","debug":{"home_form":70,"away_form":75.9899999999999948840923025272786617279052734375,"home_delta":4.70000000000000017763568394002504646778106689453125,"away_delta":-0.770000000000000017763568394002504646778106689453125,"form_diff":-4.075499999999994571453498792834579944610595703125},"effective_weight":0.1700000000000000122124532708767219446599483489990234375},{"key":"attack_defense","label":"Attack/Defense","weight":0.299999999999999988897769753748434595763683319091796875,"home_edge":-0.3313028571428571211754388059489428997039794921875,"home_xg_adjustment":-0.11152799999999996050092931909603066742420196533203125,"away_xg_adjustment":0.120383999999999991015187106313533149659633636474609375,"confidence":0.637680000000000024584778657299466431140899658203125,"data_quality":0.7800000000000000266453525910037569701671600341796875,"explanation":"Offensiv-/Defensiv-Matchup: Heimspur -0,155, Auswärtsspur 0,167","debug":{"home_attack":70,"away_attack":86.719999999999998863131622783839702606201171875,"home_defense":70,"away_defense":85.4899999999999948840923025272786617279052734375,"home_lane":-0.1548999999999999543920381483985693193972110748291015625,"away_lane":0.1671999999999999875210932032132404856383800506591796875},"effective_weight":0.292499999999999982236431605997495353221893310546875},{"key":"market","label":"Market Check","weight":0,"home_edge":0,"home_xg_adjustment":0,"away_xg_adjustment":0,"confidence":0,"data_quality":0,"explanation":"Kein Markt-/Quoten-Snapshot vorhanden; Modellanteil wird für dieses Spiel nicht gewichtet.","debug":[],"effective_weight":0}],"calibration":{"score":44,"risk":"high","warnings":[],"model_agreement":0.6875,"separation":0.00447310560301972248709034829516895115375518798828125},"direct_tip":{"score":"1:2","label":"Modell-Scoreline: MAR 2:1 · Hauptempfehlung: Kein harter Tipp · nur DNB 2 als vorsichtige Variante","probability":0.0836189818773236670512716273151454515755176544189453125,"strategy":"representative_outcome_scoreline","exact_score_reliability":"volatile","top_5":[{"home_goals":1,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.11977963252409747074711532377477851696312427520751953125},{"home_goals":0,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.08639761050455625757127364749976550228893756866455078125},{"home_goals":1,"away_goals":0,"probability":0.085788896525051949737417089636437594890594482421875},{"home_goals":1,"away_goals":2,"probability":0.0836189818773236670512716273151454515755176544189453125},{"home_goals":2,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.08302984471342071681743135513897868804633617401123046875}],"reason":"enger xG-Korridor · Stärkste Signale: Attack/Defense pro Auswärts, KYRON Elo pro Auswärts · Hauptempfehlung bleibt 1X2/Safe, Exact Score ist Nebeninfo · Safe: DNB 2 · Confidence 44/100 · Risiko high"},"rating_policy":"V9 Trust & Integrity: Hauptempfehlung ist 1X2/Safe; exakte Scoreline ist nur eine repräsentative Modell-Scoreline mit klarer Unsicherheitskennzeichnung.","trust_mode":"honest","primary_recommendation":"Kein harter Tipp · nur DNB 2 als vorsichtige Variante","scoreline_note":"Repräsentative Scoreline gewählt, weil mehrere Top-Ergebnisse dicht beieinander liegen. Reine Top-Scoreline wäre 1:1. Torprofil spricht nicht für reinen Minimal-Score. BTTS-Signal ist relevant. 1X2-Ausgang eng, Exact Score besonders vorsichtig lesen.","display_policy":"Exact Score ist nur Modell-Scoreline/Nebeninfo. Hauptempfehlung ist 1X2 bzw. Safe-Tipp."}