X2 · 2

{"match":{"id":56,"kickoff_at":"2026-06-25 22:00:00","venue":"Philadelphia Stadium"},"home":{"id":18,"name":"Curaçao","short_name":"CUW","elo":"1294.00","kyron_elo":null,"attack_rating":"56.26","defense_rating":"57.17","form_rating":"65.47","rolling_form":null,"fifa_rank":82,"fifa_points":"1294.00","fifa_points_delta":null,"source":"fifa_ranking_2026_06_11","source_date":"2026-06-11","data_quality":"0.95","is_host":0},"away":{"id":19,"name":"Elfenbeinküste","short_name":"CIV","elo":"1540.87","kyron_elo":null,"attack_rating":"74.39","defense_rating":"72.02","form_rating":"81.48","rolling_form":null,"fifa_rank":33,"fifa_points":"1540.87","fifa_points_delta":"7.89","source":"fifa_ranking_2026_06_11","source_date":"2026-06-11","data_quality":"1.00","is_host":0},"adjustment":null,"settings":{"base_goals":1.350000000000000088817841970012523233890533447265625,"host_factor":0.11999999999999999555910790149937383830547332763671875,"home_advantage":0.08000000000000000166533453693773481063544750213623046875,"weights":{"fifa_ranking":0.301587301587301570560128993747639469802379608154296875,"kyron_elo":0.2285714285714285642914234131239936687052249908447265625,"form":0.1726984126984127121406942251269356347620487213134765625,"attack_defense":0.2971428571428571530077533680014312267303466796875,"market":0}},"v9_mismatch_goal_bonus":{"weighted_edge":-0.48099572162476789127794063460896722972393035888671875,"bonus":0.2167169195698328831856116494236630387604236602783203125},"ensemble":[{"key":"fifa_ranking","label":"FIFA Ranking","weight":0.25,"home_edge":-0.5283012014954835411373323950101621448993682861328125,"home_xg_adjustment":-0.1796224085084644206400383836808032356202602386474609375,"away_xg_adjustment":0.1796224085084644206400383836808032356202602386474609375,"confidence":0.91373999999999977461584421689622104167938232421875,"data_quality":0.9499999999999999555910790149937383830547332763671875,"explanation":"Offizielle FIFA-Punkte als Grundstärke: Differenz -246,87 · FIFA-Rang 82 vs 33","debug":{"home_points":1294,"away_points":1540.8699999999998908606357872486114501953125,"points_diff":-246.8699999999998908606357872486114501953125},"effective_weight":0.301587301587301570560128993747639469802379608154296875},{"key":"kyron_elo","label":"KYRON Elo","weight":0.25,"home_edge":-0.549158038071660303813814607565291225910186767578125,"home_xg_adjustment":-0.1647474114214980966952595053953700698912143707275390625,"away_xg_adjustment":0.1647474114214980966952595053953700698912143707275390625,"confidence":0.87474999999999980548892608567257411777973175048828125,"data_quality":0.7199999999999999733546474089962430298328399658203125,"explanation":"KYRON-Elo/Turnier-Elo inklusive Gastgeberbonus: Differenz -246,9","debug":{"home_elo":1294,"away_elo":1540.8699999999998908606357872486114501953125,"home_host_bonus":0,"away_host_bonus":0,"elo_diff":-246.8699999999998908606357872486114501953125},"effective_weight":0.2285714285714285642914234131239936687052249908447265625},{"key":"form","label":"Form","weight":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"home_edge":-0.55210294117647062961395931779406964778900146484375,"home_xg_adjustment":-0.121462647058823536294625000664382241666316986083984375,"away_xg_adjustment":0.121462647058823536294625000664382241666316986083984375,"confidence":0.7013000000000000344613226843648590147495269775390625,"data_quality":0.68000000000000004884981308350688777863979339599609375,"explanation":"Kurzfristige Form aus Formwert/FIFA-Punktedelta: Differenz -18,77","debug":{"home_form":65.469999999999998863131622783839702606201171875,"away_form":81.4800000000000039790393202565610408782958984375,"home_delta":0,"away_delta":7.88999999999999968025576890795491635799407958984375,"form_diff":-18.77150000000000318323145620524883270263671875},"effective_weight":0.1726984126984127121406942251269356347620487213134765625},{"key":"attack_defense","label":"Attack/Defense","weight":0.299999999999999988897769753748434595763683319091796875,"home_edge":-0.339222857142857103784905348220490850508213043212890625,"home_xg_adjustment":-0.1134719999999999895390345727719250135123729705810546875,"away_xg_adjustment":0.12398399999999998311039917098241858184337615966796875,"confidence":0.64383999999999996788346834364347159862518310546875,"data_quality":0.7800000000000000266453525910037569701671600341796875,"explanation":"Offensiv-/Defensiv-Matchup: Heimspur -0,158, Auswärtsspur 0,172","debug":{"home_attack":56.25999999999999801048033987171947956085205078125,"away_attack":74.3900000000000005684341886080801486968994140625,"home_defense":57.1700000000000017053025658242404460906982421875,"away_defense":72.0199999999999960209606797434389591217041015625,"home_lane":-0.1575999999999999900968106203436036594212055206298828125,"away_lane":0.1721999999999999919619853017138666473329067230224609375},"effective_weight":0.2971428571428571530077533680014312267303466796875},{"key":"market","label":"Market Check","weight":0,"home_edge":0,"home_xg_adjustment":0,"away_xg_adjustment":0,"confidence":0,"data_quality":0,"explanation":"Kein Markt-/Quoten-Snapshot vorhanden; Modellanteil wird für dieses Spiel nicht gewichtet.","debug":[],"effective_weight":0}],"calibration":{"score":68,"risk":"medium","warnings":[],"model_agreement":1,"separation":0.251334692418068994523849823963246308267116546630859375},"direct_tip":{"score":"1:2","label":"Modell-Scoreline: CIV 2:1 · Hauptempfehlung: Vorsichtig: X2","probability":0.0964107612791753332270872078879619948565959930419921875,"strategy":"representative_outcome_scoreline","exact_score_reliability":"volatile","top_5":[{"home_goals":1,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.11234311105294873811555333986689220182597637176513671875},{"home_goals":0,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.0977650411344135050750736581903765909373760223388671875},{"home_goals":1,"away_goals":2,"probability":0.0964107612791753332270872078879619948565959930419921875},{"home_goals":0,"away_goals":2,"probability":0.083900133741322935332362931148963980376720428466796875},{"home_goals":1,"away_goals":0,"probability":0.06545417976997812414818866955101839266717433929443359375}],"reason":"xG-Vorteil Auswärtsteam · Stärkste Signale: FIFA Ranking pro Auswärts, KYRON Elo pro Auswärts · Hauptempfehlung bleibt 1X2/Safe, Exact Score ist Nebeninfo · Safe: X2 · Confidence 68/100 · Risiko medium"},"rating_policy":"V9 Trust & Integrity: Hauptempfehlung ist 1X2/Safe; exakte Scoreline ist nur eine repräsentative Modell-Scoreline mit klarer Unsicherheitskennzeichnung.","trust_mode":"honest","primary_recommendation":"Vorsichtig: X2","scoreline_note":"Repräsentative Scoreline gewählt, weil mehrere Top-Ergebnisse dicht beieinander liegen. Reine Top-Scoreline wäre 1:1. Torprofil spricht nicht für reinen Minimal-Score. BTTS-Signal ist relevant.","display_policy":"Exact Score ist nur Modell-Scoreline/Nebeninfo. Hauptempfehlung ist 1X2 bzw. Safe-Tipp."}