21.06.2026 06:00Monterrey Stadium · Guadalupe
TunisiavsJapan
KYRON Hauptempfehlung

DNB 2 · 2

Modell-Scoreline: JPN 2:1 · Hauptempfehlung: Kein harter Tipp · nur DNB 2 als vorsichtige Variante

8,6 %Scoreline-Wahrscheinlichkeit
0:2Alternativ-Ergebnis
1:1Rein wahrscheinlichste Scoreline
39Reliability
volatileExact-Score-Basis

enger xG-Korridor · Stärkste Signale: FIFA Ranking pro Auswärts, Attack/Defense pro Auswärts · Hauptempfehlung bleibt 1X2/Safe, Exact Score ist Nebeninfo · Safe: DNB 2 · Confidence 48/100 · Risiko high

35 %Sieg TUN
25 %Remis
40 %Sieg JPN
1,35xG Heim
1,45xG Auswärts
21X2 Haupttipp
48Confidence
39Reliability
representative_outcome_scorelineTipp-Strategie
Exact Score ist volatil; als Nebeninfo lesen, nicht als sichere Ergebnisansage.

Plausible Modell-Scorelines

Der exakte Score ist keine sichere Vorhersage. KYRON nutzt ihn nur als Modell-Scoreline; Hauptempfehlung bleiben 1X2, Safe-Tipp und Risiko.

1:1
11,9 %
0:1
8,9 %
1:2
8,6 %
1:0
8,3 %
2:1
8,0 %
0:2
6,4 %
0:0
6,1 %
2:2
5,8 %

Over 2.5 53 % BTTS 57 % Hauptempfehlung: DNB 2 Risiko high

V9 Ensemble- und Daten-Signale

FIFA Ranking
Offizielle FIFA-Punkte als Grundstärke: Differenz -185,17 · FIFA-Rang 45 vs 18
Gewicht 31,3 % Qualität 100 %
KYRON Elo
KYRON-Elo/Turnier-Elo inklusive Gastgeberbonus: Differenz 38,4
Gewicht 22,5 % Qualität 72 %
Form
Kurzfristige Form aus Formwert/FIFA-Punktedelta: Differenz -8,80
Gewicht 17,0 % Qualität 68 %
Attack/Defense
Offensiv-/Defensiv-Matchup: Heimspur -0,097, Auswärtsspur 0,109
Gewicht 29,3 % Qualität 78 %
Market Check
Kein Markt-/Quoten-Snapshot vorhanden; Modellanteil wird für dieses Spiel nicht gewichtet.
Gewicht 0,0 % Qualität 0 %
Modell-Snapshot anzeigen
{"match":{"id":36,"kickoff_at":"2026-06-21 06:00:00","venue":"Monterrey Stadium"},"home":{"id":24,"name":"Tunisia","short_name":"TUN","elo":"1700.00","kyron_elo":null,"attack_rating":"70.00","defense_rating":"70.00","form_rating":"70.00","rolling_form":null,"fifa_rank":45,"fifa_points":"1476.41","fifa_points_delta":"-6.64","source":"fifa_ranking_2026_06_11","source_date":"2026-06-11","data_quality":"1.00","is_host":0},"away":{"id":22,"name":"Japan","short_name":"JPN","elo":"1661.58","kyron_elo":null,"attack_rating":"80.93","defense_rating":"79.70","form_rating":"76.07","rolling_form":null,"fifa_rank":18,"fifa_points":"1661.58","fifa_points_delta":"1.15","source":"fifa_ranking_2026_06_11","source_date":"2026-06-11","data_quality":"1.00","is_host":0},"adjustment":null,"settings":{"base_goals":1.350000000000000088817841970012523233890533447265625,"host_factor":0.11999999999999999555910790149937383830547332763671875,"home_advantage":0.08000000000000000166533453693773481063544750213623046875,"weights":{"fifa_ranking":0.3125,"kyron_elo":0.22499999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"form":0.1700000000000000122124532708767219446599483489990234375,"attack_defense":0.292499999999999982236431605997495353221893310546875,"market":0}},"v9_mismatch_goal_bonus":{"weighted_edge":-0.213996291890759027243262835327186621725559234619140625,"bonus":0.024477330161346504133756951659961487166583538055419921875},"ensemble":[{"key":"fifa_ranking","label":"FIFA Ranking","weight":0.25,"home_edge":-0.414374395911716264517821173285483382642269134521484375,"home_xg_adjustment":-0.1408872946099835321565052481673774309456348419189453125,"away_xg_adjustment":0.1408872946099835321565052481673774309456348419189453125,"confidence":0.79033999999999959840124574839137494564056396484375,"data_quality":1,"explanation":"Offizielle FIFA-Punkte als Grundstärke: Differenz -185,17 · FIFA-Rang 45 vs 18","debug":{"home_points":1476.410000000000081854523159563541412353515625,"away_points":1661.579999999999927240423858165740966796875,"points_diff":-185.169999999999845385900698602199554443359375},"effective_weight":0.3125},{"key":"kyron_elo","label":"KYRON Elo","weight":0.25,"home_edge":0.09575571290258159951047645108701544813811779022216796875,"home_xg_adjustment":0.0287267138707744777714747641539361211471259593963623046875,"away_xg_adjustment":-0.0287267138707744777714747641539361211471259593963623046875,"confidence":0.47388461538461557065460283411084674298763275146484375,"data_quality":0.7199999999999999733546474089962430298328399658203125,"explanation":"KYRON-Elo/Turnier-Elo inklusive Gastgeberbonus: Differenz 38,4","debug":{"home_elo":1700,"away_elo":1661.579999999999927240423858165740966796875,"home_host_bonus":0,"away_host_bonus":0,"elo_diff":38.420000000000072759576141834259033203125},"effective_weight":0.22499999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375},{"key":"form","label":"Form","weight":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"home_edge":-0.258720588235293924572744117540423758327960968017578125,"home_xg_adjustment":-0.056918529411764666459117023578073712997138500213623046875,"away_xg_adjustment":0.056918529411764666459117023578073712997138500213623046875,"confidence":0.51993636363636352992756428648135624825954437255859375,"data_quality":0.68000000000000004884981308350688777863979339599609375,"explanation":"Kurzfristige Form aus Formwert/FIFA-Punktedelta: Differenz -8,80","debug":{"home_form":70,"away_form":76.06999999999999317878973670303821563720703125,"home_delta":-6.63999999999999968025576890795491635799407958984375,"away_delta":1.149999999999999911182158029987476766109466552734375,"form_diff":-8.7964999999999928803617876837961375713348388671875},"effective_weight":0.1700000000000000122124532708767219446599483489990234375},{"key":"attack_defense","label":"Attack/Defense","weight":0.299999999999999988897769753748434595763683319091796875,"home_edge":-0.2121942857142858074315228122941334731876850128173828125,"home_xg_adjustment":-0.06984000000000001318056774834985844790935516357421875,"away_xg_adjustment":0.078696000000000043694825535567360930144786834716796875,"confidence":0.54504000000000007997158490979927591979503631591796875,"data_quality":0.7800000000000000266453525910037569701671600341796875,"explanation":"Offensiv-/Defensiv-Matchup: Heimspur -0,097, Auswärtsspur 0,109","debug":{"home_attack":70,"away_attack":80.93000000000000682121026329696178436279296875,"home_defense":70,"away_defense":79.7000000000000028421709430404007434844970703125,"home_lane":-0.097000000000000030642155479654320515692234039306640625,"away_lane":0.10930000000000006377121053446899168193340301513671875},"effective_weight":0.292499999999999982236431605997495353221893310546875},{"key":"market","label":"Market Check","weight":0,"home_edge":0,"home_xg_adjustment":0,"away_xg_adjustment":0,"confidence":0,"data_quality":0,"explanation":"Kein Markt-/Quoten-Snapshot vorhanden; Modellanteil wird für dieses Spiel nicht gewichtet.","debug":[],"effective_weight":0}],"calibration":{"score":48,"risk":"high","warnings":[],"model_agreement":0.77500000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"separation":0.044289049294957971714126188089721836149692535400390625},"direct_tip":{"score":"1:2","label":"Modell-Scoreline: JPN 2:1 · Hauptempfehlung: Kein harter Tipp · nur DNB 2 als vorsichtige Variante","probability":0.08619376274171845764282551272117416374385356903076171875,"strategy":"representative_outcome_scoreline","exact_score_reliability":"volatile","top_5":[{"home_goals":1,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.1193211395540076102950166614391491748392581939697265625},{"home_goals":0,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.0885726264747278835276489417083212174475193023681640625},{"home_goals":1,"away_goals":2,"probability":0.08619376274171845764282551272117416374385356903076171875},{"home_goals":1,"away_goals":0,"probability":0.08259028200874608816040023384630330838263034820556640625},{"home_goals":2,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.08037209074142846743082913008038303814828395843505859375}],"reason":"enger xG-Korridor · Stärkste Signale: FIFA Ranking pro Auswärts, Attack/Defense pro Auswärts · Hauptempfehlung bleibt 1X2/Safe, Exact Score ist Nebeninfo · Safe: DNB 2 · Confidence 48/100 · Risiko high"},"rating_policy":"V9 Trust & Integrity: Hauptempfehlung ist 1X2/Safe; exakte Scoreline ist nur eine repräsentative Modell-Scoreline mit klarer Unsicherheitskennzeichnung.","trust_mode":"honest","primary_recommendation":"Kein harter Tipp · nur DNB 2 als vorsichtige Variante","scoreline_note":"Repräsentative Scoreline gewählt, weil mehrere Top-Ergebnisse dicht beieinander liegen. Reine Top-Scoreline wäre 1:1. Torprofil spricht nicht für reinen Minimal-Score. BTTS-Signal ist relevant. 1X2-Ausgang eng, Exact Score besonders vorsichtig lesen.","display_policy":"Exact Score ist nur Modell-Scoreline/Nebeninfo. Hauptempfehlung ist 1X2 bzw. Safe-Tipp."}