14.06.2026 22:00Dallas Stadium · Dallas
NiederlandevsJapan
KYRON Hauptempfehlung

DNB 1 · 1

Modell-Scoreline: NED 2:1 · Hauptempfehlung: Kein harter Tipp · nur DNB 1 als vorsichtige Variante

8,8 %Scoreline-Wahrscheinlichkeit
2:0Alternativ-Ergebnis
1:1Rein wahrscheinlichste Scoreline
44Reliability
volatileExact-Score-Basis

enger xG-Korridor · Stärkste Signale: FIFA Ranking pro Heim, KYRON Elo pro Heim · Hauptempfehlung bleibt 1X2/Safe, Exact Score ist Nebeninfo · Safe: DNB 1 · Confidence 52/100 · Risiko high

41 %Sieg NED
25 %Remis
34 %Sieg JPN
1,47xG Heim
1,31xG Auswärts
11X2 Haupttipp
52Confidence
44Reliability
representative_outcome_scorelineTipp-Strategie
Exact Score ist volatil; als Nebeninfo lesen, nicht als sichere Ergebnisansage.

Plausible Modell-Scorelines

Der exakte Score ist keine sichere Vorhersage. KYRON nutzt ihn nur als Modell-Scoreline; Hauptempfehlung bleiben 1X2, Safe-Tipp und Risiko.

1:1
11,9 %
1:0
9,1 %
2:1
8,8 %
0:1
8,1 %
1:2
7,8 %
2:0
6,7 %
0:0
6,2 %
2:2
5,8 %

Over 2.5 53 % BTTS 56 % Hauptempfehlung: DNB 1 Risiko high

V9 Ensemble- und Daten-Signale

FIFA Ranking
Offizielle FIFA-Punkte als Grundstärke: Differenz 91,99 · FIFA-Rang 8 vs 18
Gewicht 31,3 % Qualität 100 %
KYRON Elo
KYRON-Elo/Turnier-Elo inklusive Gastgeberbonus: Differenz 92,0
Gewicht 22,5 % Qualität 72 %
Form
Kurzfristige Form aus Formwert/FIFA-Punktedelta: Differenz -6,44
Gewicht 17,0 % Qualität 68 %
Attack/Defense
Offensiv-/Defensiv-Matchup: Heimspur 0,061, Auswärtsspur -0,045
Gewicht 29,3 % Qualität 78 %
Market Check
Kein Markt-/Quoten-Snapshot vorhanden; Modellanteil wird für dieses Spiel nicht gewichtet.
Gewicht 0,0 % Qualität 0 %
Modell-Snapshot anzeigen
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Stadium"},"home":{"id":21,"name":"Niederlande","short_name":"NED","elo":"1753.57","kyron_elo":null,"attack_rating":"85.84","defense_rating":"85.40","form_rating":"71.54","rolling_form":null,"fifa_rank":8,"fifa_points":"1753.57","fifa_points_delta":"-4.30","source":"fifa_ranking_2026_06_11","source_date":"2026-06-11","data_quality":"1.00","is_host":0},"away":{"id":22,"name":"Japan","short_name":"JPN","elo":"1661.58","kyron_elo":null,"attack_rating":"80.93","defense_rating":"79.70","form_rating":"76.07","rolling_form":null,"fifa_rank":18,"fifa_points":"1661.58","fifa_points_delta":"1.15","source":"fifa_ranking_2026_06_11","source_date":"2026-06-11","data_quality":"1.00","is_host":0},"adjustment":null,"settings":{"base_goals":1.350000000000000088817841970012523233890533447265625,"host_factor":0.11999999999999999555910790149937383830547332763671875,"home_advantage":0.08000000000000000166533453693773481063544750213623046875,"weights":{"fifa_ranking":0.3125,"kyron_elo":0.22499999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"form":0.1700000000000000122124532708767219446599483489990234375,"attack_defense":0.292499999999999982236431605997495353221893310546875,"market":0}},"v9_mismatch_goal_bonus":{"weighted_edge":0.11795555899305154579082000054768286645412445068359375,"bonus":0},"ensemble":[{"key":"fifa_ranking","label":"FIFA Ranking","weight":0.25,"home_edge":0.2155874384920892783412682547350414097309112548828125,"home_xg_adjustment":0.073299729087310361297369354360853321850299835205078125,"away_xg_adjustment":-0.073299729087310361297369354360853321850299835205078125,"confidence":0.60397999999999996134647517465054988861083984375,"data_quality":1,"explanation":"Offizielle FIFA-Punkte als Grundstärke: Differenz 91,99 · FIFA-Rang 8 vs 18","debug":{"home_points":1753.569999999999936335370875895023345947265625,"away_points":1661.579999999999927240423858165740966796875,"points_diff":91.990000000000009094947017729282379150390625},"effective_weight":0.3125},{"key":"kyron_elo","label":"KYRON Elo","weight":0.25,"home_edge":0.226004629365025466736227599540143273770809173583984375,"home_xg_adjustment":0.06780138880950763169419559517336892895400524139404296875,"away_xg_adjustment":-0.06780138880950763169419559517336892895400524139404296875,"confidence":0.57690384615384615596411777005414478480815887451171875,"data_quality":0.7199999999999999733546474089962430298328399658203125,"explanation":"KYRON-Elo/Turnier-Elo inklusive Gastgeberbonus: Differenz 92,0","debug":{"home_elo":1753.569999999999936335370875895023345947265625,"away_elo":1661.579999999999927240423858165740966796875,"home_host_bonus":0,"away_host_bonus":0,"elo_diff":91.990000000000009094947017729282379150390625},"effective_weight":0.22499999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375},{"key":"form","label":"Form","weight":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"home_edge":-0.189338235294117251950041236341348849236965179443359375,"home_xg_adjustment":-0.041654411764705794041230291213651071302592754364013671875,"away_xg_adjustment":0.041654411764705794041230291213651071302592754364013671875,"confidence":0.477045454545454272743398860257002525031566619873046875,"data_quality":0.68000000000000004884981308350688777863979339599609375,"explanation":"Kurzfristige Form aus Formwert/FIFA-Punktedelta: Differenz -6,44","debug":{"home_form":71.5400000000000062527760746888816356658935546875,"away_form":76.06999999999999317878973670303821563720703125,"home_delta":-4.29999999999999982236431605997495353221893310546875,"away_delta":1.149999999999999911182158029987476766109466552734375,"form_diff":-6.43749999999998667732370449812151491641998291015625},"effective_weight":0.1700000000000000122124532708767219446599483489990234375},{"key":"attack_defense","label":"Attack/Defense","weight":0.299999999999999988897769753748434595763683319091796875,"home_edge":0.10913142857142855979279971734285936690866947174072265625,"home_xg_adjustment":0.0442079999999999972981612472722190432250499725341796875,"away_xg_adjustment":-0.03218399999999999039346221252344548702239990234375,"confidence":0.46487999999999995992538970313034951686859130859375,"data_quality":0.7800000000000000266453525910037569701671600341796875,"explanation":"Offensiv-/Defensiv-Matchup: Heimspur 0,061, Auswärtsspur 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gewichtet.","debug":[],"effective_weight":0}],"calibration":{"score":52,"risk":"high","warnings":[],"model_agreement":0.82999999999999996003197111349436454474925994873046875,"separation":0.074710574668925888719428485273965634405612945556640625},"direct_tip":{"score":"2:1","label":"Modell-Scoreline: NED 2:1 · Hauptempfehlung: Kein harter Tipp · nur DNB 1 als vorsichtige 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repräsentative Modell-Scoreline mit klarer Unsicherheitskennzeichnung.","trust_mode":"honest","primary_recommendation":"Kein harter Tipp · nur DNB 1 als vorsichtige Variante","scoreline_note":"Repräsentative Scoreline gewählt, weil mehrere Top-Ergebnisse dicht beieinander liegen. Reine Top-Scoreline wäre 1:1. Torprofil spricht nicht für reinen Minimal-Score. BTTS-Signal ist relevant. 1X2-Ausgang eng, Exact Score besonders vorsichtig lesen.","display_policy":"Exact Score ist nur Modell-Scoreline/Nebeninfo. Hauptempfehlung ist 1X2 bzw. Safe-Tipp."}